Covid-19 Sentry

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From Preprints

  1. BNT162b2 Scenario, where the only booster administered in 2022 is BNT162b2. Analyses were performed from the US healthcare system perspective. Sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the impact of COVID-19 incidence in the unvaccinated population and vaccine effectiveness (VE) on model results. Results: In the Current Scenario, the model predicts 65.2 million outpatient visits, 3.4 million hospitalizations, and 636,100 deaths from COVID-19 in 2022. The mRNA-1273 Scenario reduced each of these outcomes compared to the Current Scenario. Specifically, 684,400 fewer outpatient visits, 48,700 fewer hospitalizations and 9,500 fewer deaths would be expected. Exclusive of vaccine costs, the mRNA-1273 Scenario is expected to decrease direct medical costs by $1.3 billion. Conversely, the BNT162b2 Scenario increased outcomes compared to the Current Scenario: specifically, 391,500 more outpatient visits, 34,500 more hospitalizations and 7,200 more deaths would be expected in 2022, costing an additional $946 million in direct medical costs. For both the mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 booster scenarios, the percent change in direct treatment costs for COVID-19 is similar to the percent change in hospitalizations as the rate of hospitalizations is the driver of the overall costs. Changing the number of projected COVID-19 cases in 2022 by varying the incidence rate has a direct effect on model outcomes. Higher incidence rates leads to higher outpatient visits, hospitalizations and deaths for all scenarios. Varying VE has an inverse effect on model outcomes. All outcomes increase when VE is lower for all vaccines and decrease when VE is higher. In all cases, additional use of mRNA-1273 leads to fewer infection outcomes while additional use of BNT126b2 results to higher infection outcomes. Conclusion: As the real-world effectiveness evidence to date indicates that mRNA-1273 may be more effective at preventing COVID-19 infection and hospitalization over time than BNT-162b2, increasing the proportion of people receiving this as a booster are expected to reduce COVID-19-related outcomes and costs in 2022, regardless of COVID-19 incidence or variant.

    🖺 Full Text HTML: Clinical and Economic Impact of Differential COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness in the United States
  1. Post-booster antibody titers were similar in those with and without subsequent breakthrough infection (p>0.05), but high antibody titers were linked to reduced viral load (p<0.01) and time to viral clearance (p<0.01). No significant differences were observed for viral load and time to viral clearance between BA.1, BA.1.1 and BA.2 infected individuals. Conclusion: We report high incidence of Omicron infections despite a recent booster vaccination in triple vaccinated individuals. Vaccine-induced antibody titres seem to play a limited role in infection risk prediction. High viral load and detection of live virus for up to nine days enables spread in a triple vaccinated population.

🖺 Full Text HTML: High rate of BA.1, BA.1.1 and BA.2 in triple vaccinated
  1. Increasing evidence has shown that metformin is linked to favorable outcomes in patients with COVID-19. The aim of this study was to address whether outpatient or inpatient metformin therapy offers low in-hospital mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus hospitalized for COVID-19. Methods We searched studies published in PubMed, Embase, Google Scholar and Cochrane Library up to October 1, 2021. Raw event data extracted from individual study were pooled using the Mantel-Haenszel approach. Odds ratio (OR) or hazard ratio (HR) adjusted for covariates that potentially confound the association using multivariable regression or propensity score matching was pooled by the inverse-variance method. Random effect models were applied for meta-analysis due to variation among studies. Results Nineteen retrospective observational studies were selected. The pooled unadjusted OR for outpatient metformin therapy and in- hospital mortality was 0.54 (95% CI, 0.42-0.68), whereas the pooled OR adjusted with multivariable regression or propensity score matching was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.47-1.12). The pooled unadjusted OR for inpatient metformin therapy and in- hospital mortality was 0.19 (95% CI, 0.10-0.36), whereas the pooled adjusted HR was 1.10 (95% CI, 0.38-3.15). Conclusions Our results suggest that there is a significant reduction of in-hospital mortality with metformin therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus hospitalized for COVID-19 in the unadjusted analysis, but this mortality benefit does not retain after adjustments for confounding bias.

    🖺 Full Text HTML: Does Metformin Decrease Mortality in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Hospitalized for COVID-19? A Multivariable and Propensity Score-adjusted Meta-analysis

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